ATP tennis predict — Toby Samuel vs Billy Harris

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 2. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Toby Samuel

Great Britain

65.04%

Billy Harris

Great Britain

34.96%

Average Odds

1.22 / 3.76

Market probability

75.50% / 24.50%

Why This Prediction?

Toby Samuel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1842 vs 1602), a higher Elo rating (1736 vs 1600) and more aces per game (0.23 vs 0.19).

Player Comparison

1735.6 Elo 1600.1

1842.0 Elo (surface) 1602.5

5 Wins 45

1 Wins (surface) 24

5 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.017 Dominance ratio 0.792

110 Rank 161

24.0 Age 31.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Toby Samuel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Billy Harris

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-04.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Toby Samuel Billy Harris

1st Serve In %

63.0%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

64.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.1%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

27.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.9%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

76.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.4%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.7%

24.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

52.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.70

Double Faults per Service Game

0.42

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Toby Samuel Billy Harris

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

36.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.8%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

34.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Toby Samuel 0 – 0 Billy Harris

Hard US Open · 2026-08-26

qualification - 2. round

Toby Samuel #110

Billy Harris #161

4-6 6-1 6-4

8 Aces 1

7 Double Faults 7

98 Service Points 92

48 First Serve In 56

33 First Serve Won 35

23 Second Serve Won 11

9 Break Points Saved 8

13 Break Points Faced 14

20 Winners 28

28 Unforced Errors 43

1.2 Average Odds 3.8

Toby Samuel vs Billy Harris — Prediction