ATP tennis predict — Titouan Droguet vs Karl Poling

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · 1. round 13:00

Predicted probability

Titouan Droguet

France

86.41%

Karl Poling

USA

13.59%

Average Odds

1.07 / 7.82

Market probability

87.96% / 12.04%

Why This Prediction?

Titouan Droguet is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1928 vs 1484), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1860 vs 1459) and more wins on hard courts (24 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1928.0 Elo 1483.8

1860.2 Elo (surface) 1459.1

129 Wins (Challenger) 34

60 Wins (surface) 24

12 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.165 Dominance ratio 0.929

84 Rank 460

25.3 Age 27.1

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Titouan Droguet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Karl Poling

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Titouan Droguet Karl Poling

1st Serve In %

56.3%

65.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.9%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

19.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

32.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

—

65.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

64.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Titouan Droguet Karl Poling

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

67.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

57.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.0%

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

43.3%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Titouan Droguet 0 – 0 Karl Poling

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Titouan Droguet #84

Karl Poling #460

6-7 6-4 7-6

14 Aces 2

8 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

71 First Serve Won 54

12 Second Serve Won 12

5 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 7.8

Titouan Droguet vs Karl Poling — Prediction