ATP tennis predict — Titouan Droguet vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli

ATP Clay Estoril · 1. round

Predicted probability

Titouan Droguet

France

41.20%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

58.80%

Average Odds

2.06 / 1.74

Market probability

45.79% / 54.21%

Why This Prediction?

Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1811 vs 1733), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1853 vs 1778) and a stronger return game (48.4% vs 39.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1732.7 Elo 1810.7

1777.6 Elo (surface) 1852.7

39 Wins 58

17 Wins (surface) 48

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.907 Dominance ratio 0.952

114 Rank 69

25.1 Age 27.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Titouan Droguet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Titouan Droguet Camilo Ugo Carabelli

1st Serve In %

56.3%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

66.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.9%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

—

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Titouan Droguet Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

42.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.0%

52.2%

Break Points Converted %

43.3%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Titouan Droguet 0 – 0 Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-20

1. round

Titouan Droguet #114

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #69

6-0 3-6 6-4

5 Aces 1

5 Double Faults 6

77 Service Points 73

46 First Serve In 34

32 First Serve Won 20

14 Second Serve Won 16

4 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 7

23 Winners 29

28 Unforced Errors 49

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Titouan Droguet vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Prediction