ATP tennis predict — Timofey Skatov vs Yanki Erel

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · 1. round 13:30

Predicted probability

Timofey Skatov

Kazakhstan

53.10%

Yanki Erel

Turkey

46.90%

Average Odds

1.66 / 2.11

Market probability

55.97% / 44.03%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1620.8 Elo 1541.0

1425.0 Elo (surface) 1579.6

145 Wins (Challenger) 41

19 Wins (surface) 33

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.064 Dominance ratio 0.870

205 Rank 305

25.6 Age 26.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Timofey Skatov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Yanki Erel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Timofey Skatov Yanki Erel

1st Serve In %

67.0%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

22.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.5%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

66.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Timofey Skatov Yanki Erel

Break Points Saved %

64.7%

61.3%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

52.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

46.8%

64.2%

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

29.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Timofey Skatov 0 – 0 Yanki Erel

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Yanki Erel #305

Timofey Skatov #205

7-6 6-4

7 Aces 6

8 Double Faults 3

76 Service Points 77

43 First Serve In 49

29 First Serve Won 39

18 Second Serve Won 16

5 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Timofey Skatov vs Yanki Erel — Prediction