ATP tennis predict — Timofey Skatov vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Timofey Skatov

Kazakhstan

53.85%

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Belgium

46.15%

Average Odds

1.66 / 2.15

Market probability

56.43% / 43.57%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1619.5 Elo 1485.5

1398.2 Elo (surface) 1504.5

44 Wins 8

13 Wins (surface) 8

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.931 Dominance ratio 1.017

205 Rank 240

25.6 Age 20.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Timofey Skatov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Timofey Skatov Gilles Arnaud Bailly

1st Serve In %

67.0%

64.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.9%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.5%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

64.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

51.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.4%

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

54.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Timofey Skatov Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Break Points Saved %

64.7%

76.0%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

42.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

46.8%

59.5%

Break Points Converted %

34.6%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Timofey Skatov 0 – 0 Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Hard US Open · 2026-08-25

qualification - 1. round

Timofey Skatov #205

Gilles Arnaud Bailly #240

6-4 6-2

4 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 0

56 Service Points 68

41 First Serve In 47

31 First Serve Won 28

9 Second Serve Won 10

6 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 9

10 Winners 13

14 Unforced Errors 33

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Timofey Skatov vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly — Prediction