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Timofei Derepasko vs Taisei Ichikawa — Prediction

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · qualification - round of 16 07:05

Predicted probability

Timofei Derepasko

Russia

57.52%

Taisei Ichikawa

Japan

42.48%

Average Odds

1.91  /  1.80

Market probability

48.52%  /  51.48%

Why This Prediction?

Timofei Derepasko is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (45.6% vs 38.8% of return points won), a stronger serve (59.5% vs 58.5% of service points won) and more aces per game (0.24 vs 0.22).

Player Comparison

1573.2 Elo 1567.2
1574.4 Elo (surface) 1568.6
6 Wins (Challenger) 25
6 Wins (surface) 25
6 Last 15 form 9
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.125 Dominance ratio 0.935
680 Rank 768
19.7 Age 25.7
right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Timofei Derepasko

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-09-06.

Taisei Ichikawa

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Timofei Derepasko Taisei Ichikawa

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

58.0%
57.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.1%
65.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%
48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.0%
30.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%
52.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.55
0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33
0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Timofei Derepasko Taisei Ichikawa

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

56.0%
59.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.6%
33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Timofei Derepasko 00 Taisei Ichikawa

Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 2026-09-14

qualification - round of 16

Timofei Derepasko #642

Taisei Ichikawa #758

7-5 6-3
8 Aces 4
3 Double Faults 4
- Service Points -
- First Serve In -
29 First Serve Won 30
15 Second Serve Won 11
1 Break Points Saved 8
2 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Timofei Derepasko — Last 10

L W W L W W W L L L

Taisei Ichikawa — Last 10

L W L W L W W L L W