ATP tennis predict — Timofei Derepasko vs Sam Ryan Ziegann

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 1. round 05:10

Predicted probability

Timofei Derepasko

Russia

69.04%

Sam Ryan Ziegann

Australia

30.96%

Average Odds

1.35 / 2.98

Market probability

68.82% / 31.18%

Why This Prediction?

Timofei Derepasko is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1585 vs 1431), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1587 vs 1489) and a stronger return game (46.5% vs 32.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1585.5 Elo 1431.0

1586.9 Elo (surface) 1489.2

4 Wins (Challenger) 3

4 Wins (surface) 3

4 Last 15 form 3

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.127 Dominance ratio 0.795

680 Rank 820

19.7 Age 28.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Timofei Derepasko

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-09-06.

Sam Ryan Ziegann

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Timofei Derepasko Sam Ryan Ziegann

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

58.0%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.1%

66.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.0%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

40.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Timofei Derepasko Sam Ryan Ziegann

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

56.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.6%

31.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Timofei Derepasko 0 – 0 Sam Ryan Ziegann

Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Timofei Derepasko #680

Sam Ryan Ziegann #820

6-3 4-6 6-4

11 Aces 11

3 Double Faults 2

98 Service Points 81

59 First Serve In 53

44 First Serve Won 30

20 Second Serve Won 20

5 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 3.0

Timofei Derepasko vs Sam Ryan Ziegann — Prediction