ATP tennis predict — Timofei Derepasko vs Ilia Simakin

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 1. round 09:05

Predicted probability

Timofei Derepasko

Russia

23.36%

Ilia Simakin

Russia

76.64%

Average Odds

6.51 / 1.10

Market probability

14.45% / 85.55%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1854 vs 1615), a higher Elo rating (1814 vs 1614) and a stronger serve (66.1% vs 59.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1613.7 Elo 1814.0

1614.9 Elo (surface) 1853.6

7 Wins (Challenger) 77

7 Wins (surface) 74

7 Last 15 form 14

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.125 Dominance ratio 1.071

642 Rank 177

19.7 Age 22.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Timofei Derepasko

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-09-06.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Timofei Derepasko Ilia Simakin

1st Serve In %

—

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

24.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

42.3%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.0%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.1%

56.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

64.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.0%

20.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Timofei Derepasko Ilia Simakin

Break Points Saved %

—

85.7%

Break Points Converted %

—

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

41.6%

46.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Timofei Derepasko 0 – 0 Ilia Simakin

Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 2026-09-15

1. round

Ilia Simakin #177

Timofei Derepasko #642

6-4 6-3

2 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

19 First Serve Won 21

13 Second Serve Won 15

3 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 6.5

Timofei Derepasko vs Ilia Simakin — Prediction