ATP tennis predict — Timo Legout vs Daniil Ostapenkov

Challenger Hard San Diego 2 challenger · qualification - round of 16 21:30

Predicted probability

Timo Legout

France

65.60%

Daniil Ostapenkov

Belarus

34.40%

Average Odds

1.26 / 3.50

Market probability

73.53% / 26.47%

Why This Prediction?

Timo Legout is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1682 vs 1549), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1656 vs 1520) and a better head-to-head record against Daniil Ostapenkov (1-0).

Player Comparison

1682.4 Elo 1549.1

1655.6 Elo (surface) 1519.9

18 Wins (Challenger) 13

16 Wins (surface) 9

10 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.928 Dominance ratio 1.012

410 Rank 555

None Age 23.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Timo Legout

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Daniil Ostapenkov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Timo Legout Daniil Ostapenkov

1st Serve In %

64.0%

52.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

57.7%

59.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

30.0%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.0%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

34.1%

55.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.06

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.75

0.56

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.9%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

45.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.9%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.9%

42.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Timo Legout Daniil Ostapenkov

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

16.7%

63.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.8%

49.2%

Break Points Converted %

51.8%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Timo Legout 1 – 0 Daniil Ostapenkov

Hard San Diego 2 challenger · 2026-09-21

qualification - round of 16

Timo Legout #410

Daniil Ostapenkov #555

6-3 6-1

0 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 7

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

18 First Serve Won 16

8 Second Serve Won 4

3 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-14

qualification - round of 16

Timo Legout #444

Daniil Ostapenkov #554

6-3 6-4

0 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

31 First Serve Won 25

12 Second Serve Won 6

2 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.1

Timo Legout vs Daniil Ostapenkov — Prediction