ATP tennis predict — Tiago Torres vs Alejandro Tabilo

ATP Clay Estoril · R16

Predicted probability

Tiago Torres

Portugal

21.80%

Alejandro Tabilo

Chile

78.20%

Average Odds

6.82 / 1.10

Market probability

13.89% / 86.11%

Why This Prediction?

Alejandro Tabilo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1820 vs 1610), a higher Elo rating (1794 vs 1620) and a stronger serve (67.0% vs 57.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1619.7 Elo 1794.2

1610.3 Elo (surface) 1820.5

1 Wins 131

1 Wins (surface) 58

1 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.279 Dominance ratio 0.885

427 Rank 30

24.0 Age 29.1

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tiago Torres

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-07-20.

Alejandro Tabilo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Torres Alejandro Tabilo

1st Serve In %

54.7%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.3%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.6%

20.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

65.6%

43.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.66

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

52.4%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.0%

76.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

53.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Torres Alejandro Tabilo

Break Points Saved %

61.1%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.3%

32.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.3%

73.0%

Break Points Converted %

48.8%

43.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tiago Torres 0 – 0 Alejandro Tabilo

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-22

R16

Tiago Torres #427

Alejandro Tabilo #30

6-4 6-4

3 Aces 7

0 Double Faults 5

58 Service Points 74

41 First Serve In 42

28 First Serve Won 33

7 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 7

6 Break Points Faced 8

19 Winners 27

34 Unforced Errors 23

6.8 Average Odds 1.1

Tiago Torres vs Alejandro Tabilo — Prediction