ATP tennis predict — Tiago Pereira vs Thiago Cigarran

Challenger Clay Sevilla challenger · qualification - 1. round 16:00

Predicted probability

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

57.39%

Thiago Cigarran

Argentina

42.61%

Average Odds

1.21 / 4.00

Market probability

76.78% / 23.22%

Why This Prediction?

Tiago Pereira is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1441 vs 1434) and a stronger serve (65.0% vs 60.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1441.5 Elo 1433.9

1407.6 Elo (surface) 1450.8

32 Wins (Challenger) 16

19 Wins (surface) 16

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.096 Dominance ratio 1.061

355 Rank 658

22.2 Age 26.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tiago Pereira

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-09.

Thiago Cigarran

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Pereira Thiago Cigarran

1st Serve In %

56.7%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.42

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

65.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.6%

66.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.5%

32.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Pereira Thiago Cigarran

Break Points Saved %

56.2%

—

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.0%

57.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tiago Pereira 0 – 0 Thiago Cigarran

Clay Sevilla challenger · 2026-09-06

qualification - 1. round

Tiago Pereira #355

Thiago Cigarran #658

6-3 2-6 7-6

2 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 3

83 Service Points 93

46 First Serve In 66

37 First Serve Won 44

18 Second Serve Won 14

1 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4

Tiago Pereira vs Thiago Cigarran — Prediction