ATP tennis predict — Tiago Pereira vs Pavlos Tsitsipas

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 4 challenger · qualification - 1. round 15:30

Predicted probability

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

95.65%

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Greece

4.35%

Average Odds

1.07 / 6.77

Market probability

86.35% / 13.65%

Why This Prediction?

Tiago Pereira is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1543 vs 1250), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1538 vs 1324) and fewer double faults per game (0.08 vs 0.40).

Player Comparison

1543.4 Elo 1250.2

1537.9 Elo (surface) 1324.2

36 Wins (Challenger) 2

23 Wins (surface) 0

9 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.049 Dominance ratio 0.639

338 Rank 1047

22.2 Age 21.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tiago Pereira

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-09.

Pavlos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-09-13.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Pereira Pavlos Tsitsipas

1st Serve In %

56.7%

64.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

61.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

17.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.3%

0.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%

37.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.14

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

1.00

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.6%

60.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

41.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.5%

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Pereira Pavlos Tsitsipas

Break Points Saved %

56.2%

42.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.0%

41.8%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

38.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tiago Pereira 0 – 0 Pavlos Tsitsipas

Clay Plovdiv 4 challenger · 2026-09-20

qualification - 1. round

Pavlos Tsitsipas #1079

Tiago Pereira #332

6-7 7-5 7-6

15 Aces 7

6 Double Faults 12

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

53 First Serve Won 51

28 Second Serve Won 32

2 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

6.8 Average Odds 1.1

Tiago Pereira vs Pavlos Tsitsipas — Prediction