ATP tennis predict — Tiago Pereira vs Marco Trungelliti

Challenger Clay Sevilla challenger · 1. round 12:30

Predicted probability

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

31.76%

Marco Trungelliti

Argentina

68.24%

Average Odds

3.91 / 1.23

Market probability

23.93% / 76.07%

Why This Prediction?

Marco Trungelliti is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1681 vs 1449), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1705 vs 1420) and more wins on clay courts (74 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1448.7 Elo 1681.1

1420.1 Elo (surface) 1705.2

33 Wins (Challenger) 295

20 Wins (surface) 240

7 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.074 Dominance ratio 1.371

355 Rank 83

22.2 Age 36.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tiago Pereira

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-09.

Marco Trungelliti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Pereira Marco Trungelliti

1st Serve In %

56.7%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

44.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.3%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

66.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.6%

68.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.5%

38.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Pereira Marco Trungelliti

Break Points Saved %

56.2%

61.5%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.0%

63.8%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

35.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tiago Pereira 0 – 1 Marco Trungelliti

Clay Sevilla challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Tiago Pereira #355

Marco Trungelliti #83

6-4 4-6 6-4

9 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 1

117 Service Points 86

73 First Serve In 55

50 First Serve Won 38

23 Second Serve Won 19

13 Break Points Saved 5

15 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.9 Average Odds 1.2

Clay Braga CH · 2025-09-29

R32

Marco Trungelliti #141

Tiago Pereira #281

6-1 6-1

2 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 3

37 Service Points 54

24 First Serve In 27

16 First Serve Won 12

9 Second Serve Won 10

1 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Tiago Pereira vs Marco Trungelliti — Prediction