ATP tennis predict — Tiago Pereira vs Ilya Ivashka

Challenger Hard Pozoblanco challenger · SF

Predicted probability

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

30.27%

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

69.73%

Average Odds

2.91 / 1.37

Market probability

32.01% / 67.99%

Why This Prediction?

Ilya Ivashka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1644 vs 1446), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1665 vs 1542) and more wins on hard courts (91 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1445.5 Elo 1643.9

1542.3 Elo (surface) 1664.9

30 Wins (Challenger) 126

12 Wins (surface) 110

5 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.931 Dominance ratio 1.216

379 Rank 554

22.1 Age 32.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tiago Pereira

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-09.

Ilya Ivashka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Pereira Ilya Ivashka

1st Serve In %

56.7%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

46.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.3%

26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%

52.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.45

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.6%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

55.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.5%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Pereira Ilya Ivashka

Break Points Saved %

56.2%

62.6%

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.0%

51.1%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tiago Pereira 0 – 0 Ilya Ivashka

Hard Pozoblanco challenger · 2026-07-18

SF

Ilya Ivashka #554

Tiago Pereira #379

7-6 2-6 7-6

4 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 3

129 Service Points 108

77 First Serve In 65

54 First Serve Won 45

28 Second Serve Won 23

7 Break Points Saved 7

10 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Tiago Pereira vs Ilya Ivashka — Prediction