ATP tennis predict — Tiago Pereira vs Filip Pieczonka

Challenger Clay Szczecin challenger · 1. round 15:00

Predicted probability

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

61.87%

Filip Pieczonka

Poland

38.13%

Average Odds

2.05 / 1.71

Market probability

45.48% / 54.52%

Why This Prediction?

Tiago Pereira is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (63.8% vs 58.8% of service points won), fewer double faults per game (0.08 vs 0.27) and a stronger return game (38.0% vs 37.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1562.2 Elo 1575.5

1559.5 Elo (surface) 1578.7

36 Wins (Challenger) 14

23 Wins (surface) 8

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.049 Dominance ratio 0.904

338 Rank 1112

22.2 Age 22.4

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tiago Pereira

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-09.

Filip Pieczonka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-15.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Pereira Filip Pieczonka

1st Serve In %

56.7%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.42

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.6%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.5%

30.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%

55.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Pereira Filip Pieczonka

Break Points Saved %

56.2%

—

Break Points Converted %

39.1%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.0%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tiago Pereira 0 – 0 Filip Pieczonka

Clay Szczecin challenger · 2026-09-15

1. round

Filip Pieczonka #1112

Tiago Pereira #338

5-7 6-4 7-5

1 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 7

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

41 First Serve Won 48

29 Second Serve Won 17

14 Break Points Saved 5

18 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Tiago Pereira vs Filip Pieczonka — Prediction