← Back to Predictions

Tiago Cacao vs Sergi Perez Contri — Prediction

Challenger Clay Maia challenger · qualification - 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Tiago Cacao

Portugal

44.06%

Average Odds

1.88  /  1.83

Market probability

49.33%  /  50.67%

Why This Prediction?

Sergi Perez Contri is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1491 vs 1423), a stronger return game (46.0% vs 40.4% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1484 vs 1459).

Player Comparison

1423.4 Elo 1491.4
1459.3 Elo (surface) 1484.4
17 Wins (Challenger) 11
17 Wins (surface) 11
4 Last 15 form 6
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.968 Dominance ratio 1.074
649 Rank 446
28.6 Age 28.7
right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tiago Cacao

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-08-23.

Sergi Perez Contri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-09-06.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Cacao Sergi Perez Contri

1st Serve In %

63.8%
—

1st Serve Points Won %

56.8%
—

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%
—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.7%
—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.8%
—

Aces per Service Game

0.11
—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11
—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%
66.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.1%
64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%
46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.4%
37.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%
55.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.23
0.08

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34
0.54

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Cacao Sergi Perez Contri

Break Points Saved %

36.4%
—

Break Points Converted %

66.7%
—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.6%
60.0%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%
41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tiago Cacao and Sergi Perez Contri have never played each other.

Tiago Cacao — Last 10

L W L L W W L L L L

Sergi Perez Contri — Last 10

L L L W L L W W W L