ATP tennis predict — Tiago Cacao vs Milos Karol

Challenger Clay Braga challenger · qualification - 1. round 12:30

Predicted probability

Tiago Cacao

Portugal

29.98%

Milos Karol

Slovakia

70.02%

Average Odds

2.18 / 1.62

Market probability

42.63% / 57.37%

Why This Prediction?

Milos Karol is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1573 vs 1397), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1530 vs 1439) and more career match wins (50 vs 16).

Player Comparison

1397.0 Elo 1573.2

1438.9 Elo (surface) 1530.5

16 Wins (Challenger) 50

16 Wins (surface) 24

3 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.968 Dominance ratio 0.955

643 Rank 576

28.6 Age 23.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tiago Cacao

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-08-23.

Milos Karol

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Cacao Milos Karol

1st Serve In %

63.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

56.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.11

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

56.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.5%

77.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

46.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

26.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

47.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Cacao Milos Karol

Break Points Saved %

36.4%

—

Break Points Converted %

66.7%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

62.5%

59.4%

Break Points Converted %

35.9%

22.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tiago Cacao and Milos Karol have never played each other.

Tiago Cacao vs Milos Karol — Prediction