ATP tennis predict — Tiago Cacao vs Alejandro Moro Canas

Challenger Clay Porto 2 challenger · 1. round 14:30

Predicted probability

Tiago Cacao

Portugal

23.29%

Alejandro Moro Canas

Spain

76.71%

Average Odds

4.17 / 1.20

Market probability

22.35% / 77.65%

Why This Prediction?

Alejandro Moro Canas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1608 vs 1448), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1593 vs 1478) and a stronger serve (68.4% vs 57.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1448.4 Elo 1607.5

1477.9 Elo (surface) 1593.4

16 Wins (Challenger) 117

16 Wins (surface) 58

4 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.915 Dominance ratio 1.223

665 Rank 238

28.5 Age 25.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tiago Cacao

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-08-23.

Alejandro Moro Canas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–5L · 64.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Cacao Alejandro Moro Canas

1st Serve In %

63.8%

66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

56.8%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

53.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.7%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.11

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.11

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.6%

64.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

40.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.5%

37.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.6%

55.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tiago Cacao Alejandro Moro Canas

Break Points Saved %

36.4%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

66.7%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.3%

59.3%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tiago Cacao 0 – 0 Alejandro Moro Canas

Clay Porto 2 challenger · 2026-09-01

1. round

Alejandro Moro Canas #238

Tiago Cacao #665

3-6 6-1 6-4

0 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 3

91 Service Points 78

43 First Serve In 59

29 First Serve Won 37

18 Second Serve Won 8

10 Break Points Saved 7

16 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.2

Tiago Cacao vs Alejandro Moro Canas — Prediction