ATP tennis predict — Thomas Faurel vs Mark Lajal

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · R16 13:30

Predicted probability

Thomas Faurel

France

19.84%

Mark Lajal

Estonia

80.16%

Average Odds

4.59 / 1.17

Market probability

20.31% / 79.69%

Why This Prediction?

Mark Lajal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1833 vs 1561), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1808 vs 1535) and more wins on hard courts (129 vs 4).

Player Comparison

1560.8 Elo 1832.6

1535.1 Elo (surface) 1808.0

26 Wins (Challenger) 143

4 Wins (surface) 129

5 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.824 Dominance ratio 1.039

340 Rank 143

20.7 Age 23.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thomas Faurel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Mark Lajal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

37 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thomas Faurel Mark Lajal

1st Serve In %

62.4%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.2%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

54.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.9%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.49

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.2%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.0%

61.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

44.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.9%

57.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thomas Faurel Mark Lajal

Break Points Saved %

69.7%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

32.0%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.5%

55.4%

Break Points Converted %

56.2%

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thomas Faurel 0 – 0 Mark Lajal

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-23

R16

Mark Lajal #143

Thomas Faurel #340

6-1 6-2

1 Aces 5

5 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

9 First Serve Won 28

11 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 3

4 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.6

Thomas Faurel vs Mark Lajal — Prediction