ATP tennis predict — Thomas Faurel vs Daniel Rincon

Challenger Clay Zug challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Thomas Faurel

France

24.13%

Daniel Rincon

Spain

75.87%

Average Odds

2.63 / 1.44

Market probability

35.38% / 64.62%

Why This Prediction?

Daniel Rincon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1717 vs 1483), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1733 vs 1477) and a stronger return game (43.5% vs 41.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1482.5 Elo 1716.9

1476.9 Elo (surface) 1732.8

22 Wins (Challenger) 104

19 Wins (surface) 75

6 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.048 Dominance ratio 1.276

314 Rank 206

20.5 Age 23.5

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thomas Faurel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Daniel Rincon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-06-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thomas Faurel Daniel Rincon

1st Serve In %

62.4%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.2%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.9%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.49

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.2%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.0%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.9%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thomas Faurel Daniel Rincon

Break Points Saved %

69.7%

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

32.0%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.5%

69.4%

Break Points Converted %

56.2%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thomas Faurel 0 – 0 Daniel Rincon

Clay Zug challenger · 2026-07-20

1. round

Daniel Rincon #206

Thomas Faurel #314

7-6 4-6 7-6

7 Aces 14

4 Double Faults 4

117 Service Points 131

72 First Serve In 82

48 First Serve Won 57

26 Second Serve Won 23

6 Break Points Saved 7

8 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Thomas Faurel vs Daniel Rincon — Prediction