ATP tennis predict — Thiago Monteiro vs Tommaso Compagnucci

Challenger Clay Hagen challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

71.26%

Tommaso Compagnucci

Italy

28.74%

Average Odds

1.27 / 3.50

Market probability

73.38% / 26.62%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Monteiro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1668 vs 1578), more wins on clay courts (236 vs 25) and a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1697 vs 1602).

Player Comparison

1667.7 Elo 1578.0

1697.2 Elo (surface) 1602.1

250 Wins (Challenger) 26

236 Wins (surface) 25

11 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.380 Dominance ratio 1.013

303 Rank 358

32.2 Age 26.7

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

Tommaso Compagnucci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Tommaso Compagnucci

1st Serve In %

66.5%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.45

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

63.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

44.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

39.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Tommaso Compagnucci

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

40.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Monteiro 0 – 0 Tommaso Compagnucci

Clay Hagen challenger · 2026-08-03

qualification - round of 16

Thiago Monteiro #276

Tommaso Compagnucci #358

6-2 6-4

2 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 4

57 Service Points 54

33 First Serve In 30

23 First Serve Won 19

15 Second Serve Won 9

1 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Thiago Monteiro vs Tommaso Compagnucci — Prediction