ATP tennis predict — Thiago Monteiro vs Tom Gentzsch

Challenger Clay Hagen challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

61.41%

Tom Gentzsch

Germany

38.59%

Average Odds

1.83 / 1.89

Market probability

50.81% / 49.19%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Monteiro is the favorite because he has more wins on clay courts (237 vs 33), a stronger return game (43.0% vs 38.5% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating (1674 vs 1659).

Player Comparison

1674.2 Elo 1659.2

1704.2 Elo (surface) 1689.2

251 Wins (Challenger) 55

237 Wins (surface) 33

12 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.358 Dominance ratio 1.021

276 Rank 185

32.2 Age 22.9

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

Tom Gentzsch

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Tom Gentzsch

1st Serve In %

66.5%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.2%

23.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

45.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Tom Gentzsch

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

51.4%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Monteiro 0 – 0 Tom Gentzsch

Clay Hagen challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Tom Gentzsch #185

Thiago Monteiro #276

6-3 6-7 6-4

6 Aces 13

6 Double Faults 3

136 Service Points 90

83 First Serve In 67

59 First Serve Won 54

20 Second Serve Won 13

10 Break Points Saved 1

13 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Thiago Monteiro vs Tom Gentzsch — Prediction