ATP tennis predict — Thiago Monteiro vs Stefano Travaglia

Challenger Clay Szczecin challenger · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

64.14%

Stefano Travaglia

Italy

35.86%

Average Odds

1.83 / 1.87

Market probability

50.54% / 49.46%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Monteiro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1751 vs 1668), more wins on clay courts (240 vs 189) and a higher Elo rating (1751 vs 1698).

Player Comparison

1750.9 Elo 1697.5

1751.0 Elo (surface) 1668.2

254 Wins (Challenger) 267

240 Wins (surface) 189

10 Last 15 form 6

2 Head-to-head wins 2

1.143 Dominance ratio 1.008

280 Rank 147

32.3 Age 34.7

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

Stefano Travaglia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Stefano Travaglia

1st Serve In %

66.5%

56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

70.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.2%

25.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

56.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

64.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

55.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Stefano Travaglia

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

61.4%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

38.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

50.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

37.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Monteiro 2 – 2 Stefano Travaglia

Clay Szczecin challenger · 2026-09-14

1. round

Thiago Monteiro #282

Stefano Travaglia #158

6-3 7-6

5 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

37 First Serve Won 31

14 Second Serve Won 12

4 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Clay Genoa CH · 2023-09-04

R32

Thiago Monteiro #118

Stefano Travaglia #233

6-2 1-6 6-4

5 Aces 10

7 Double Faults 3

86 Service Points 98

53 First Serve In 63

39 First Serve Won 42

12 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 8

7 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Montechiarugolo CH · 2023-06-19

QF

Stefano Travaglia #256

Thiago Monteiro #95

6-3 7-6(5)

6 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 1

66 Service Points 72

44 First Serve In 37

37 First Serve Won 29

14 Second Serve Won 18

3 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Genoa CH · 2022-09-19

R32

Thiago Monteiro #66

Stefano Travaglia #193

4-6 6-2 6-4

2 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 4

86 Service Points 85

54 First Serve In 46

38 First Serve Won 28

20 Second Serve Won 23

5 Break Points Saved 6

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Great Ocean Road Open · 2021-02-01

SF

Stefano Travaglia #71

Thiago Monteiro #83

6-3 6-4

10 Aces 8

3 Double Faults 0

74 Service Points 49

43 First Serve In 34

34 First Serve Won 24

14 Second Serve Won 8

3 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Thiago Monteiro vs Stefano Travaglia — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Thiago Monteiro — Last 10

Stefano Travaglia — Last 10