ATP tennis predict — Thiago Monteiro vs Petr Nesterov

Challenger Clay Zug challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

59.60%

Petr Nesterov

Bulgaria

40.40%

Average Odds

1.37 / 2.89

Market probability

67.84% / 32.16%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Monteiro is the favorite because he has more wins on clay courts (230 vs 24), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1686 vs 1585) and a higher Elo rating (1648 vs 1598).

Player Comparison

1647.6 Elo 1597.8

1686.1 Elo (surface) 1585.4

244 Wins (Challenger) 33

230 Wins (surface) 24

11 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.070 Dominance ratio 0.898

298 Rank 365

32.1 Age 23.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

Petr Nesterov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Petr Nesterov

1st Serve In %

66.5%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

37.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.2%

32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

56.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

59.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

44.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Petr Nesterov

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

26.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

49.4%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

40.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Monteiro 0 – 0 Petr Nesterov

Clay Zug challenger · 2026-07-20

qualification - round of 16

Thiago Monteiro #298

Petr Nesterov #365

6-3 4-6 7-5

7 Aces 8

3 Double Faults 2

97 Service Points 92

63 First Serve In 56

52 First Serve Won 40

13 Second Serve Won 20

9 Break Points Saved 4

11 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Thiago Monteiro vs Petr Nesterov — Prediction