ATP tennis predict — Thiago Monteiro vs Marco Trungelliti

Challenger Clay Szczecin challenger · SF 14:00

Predicted probability

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

49.66%

Marco Trungelliti

Argentina

50.34%

Average Odds

2.13 / 1.66

Market probability

43.80% / 56.20%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1776.0 Elo 1814.6

1778.2 Elo (surface) 1807.0

257 Wins (Challenger) 298

243 Wins (surface) 243

11 Last 15 form 12

2 Head-to-head wins 2

1.143 Dominance ratio 1.325

282 Rank 99

32.3 Age 36.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

Marco Trungelliti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Marco Trungelliti

1st Serve In %

66.5%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

44.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.2%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

66.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

68.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

38.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Marco Trungelliti

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

61.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

63.8%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

35.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Monteiro 2 – 2 Marco Trungelliti

Clay Szczecin challenger · 2026-09-19

SF

Thiago Monteiro #282

Marco Trungelliti #99

6-4 3-6 6-3

3 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

43 First Serve Won 37

11 Second Serve Won 14

0 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Clay Salzburg CH · 2023-07-10

R16

Thiago Monteiro #95

Marco Trungelliti #236

4-6 6-4 6-3

5 Aces 4

7 Double Faults 7

92 Service Points 86

55 First Serve In 38

45 First Serve Won 24

17 Second Serve Won 25

7 Break Points Saved 2

10 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Madrid CH · 2022-04-11

SF

Marco Trungelliti #194

Thiago Monteiro #114

7-6(1) 7-6(5)

10 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 1

98 Service Points 83

47 First Serve In 57

28 First Serve Won 37

31 Second Serve Won 14

9 Break Points Saved 5

12 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Szczecin CH · 2021-09-13

R16

Marco Trungelliti #179

Thiago Monteiro #92

6-4 6-3

8 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 3

61 Service Points 57

30 First Serve In 29

20 First Serve Won 21

20 Second Serve Won 12

4 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Biella CH · 2018-09-17

QF

Thiago Monteiro #117

Marco Trungelliti #134

6-1 6-2

0 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 5

50 Service Points 37

27 First Serve In 16

24 First Serve Won 10

12 Second Serve Won 7

1 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Thiago Monteiro vs Marco Trungelliti — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Thiago Monteiro — Last 10

Marco Trungelliti — Last 10