ATP tennis predict — Thiago Monteiro vs Manuel Mazza

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

80.74%

Manuel Mazza

Italy

19.26%

Average Odds

1.20 / 4.19

Market probability

77.74% / 22.26%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Monteiro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1649 vs 1457), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1679 vs 1459) and more wins on clay courts (232 vs 7).

Player Comparison

1648.7 Elo 1456.5

1679.1 Elo (surface) 1458.8

246 Wins (Challenger) 7

232 Wins (surface) 7

11 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.142 Dominance ratio 1.009

178 Rank 772

32.2 Age 27.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

Manuel Mazza

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Manuel Mazza

1st Serve In %

66.5%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.45

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

69.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

61.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

53.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Manuel Mazza

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

52.9%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Monteiro 0 – 0 Manuel Mazza

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-27

qualification - round of 16

Thiago Monteiro #303

Manuel Mazza #756

6-1 6-4

4 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 1

52 Service Points 48

32 First Serve In 35

24 First Serve Won 18

13 Second Serve Won 4

1 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.2

Thiago Monteiro vs Manuel Mazza — Prediction