ATP tennis predict — Thiago Monteiro vs Ivan Gakhov

Challenger Clay Hagen challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

70.93%

Ivan Gakhov

Russia

29.07%

Average Odds

1.13 / 5.03

Market probability

81.66% / 18.34%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Monteiro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1661 vs 1585), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1690 vs 1604) and a stronger serve (68.9% vs 57.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1660.9 Elo 1584.7

1689.8 Elo (surface) 1604.4

249 Wins (Challenger) 157

235 Wins (surface) 128

11 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.383 Dominance ratio 0.837

303 Rank 459

32.2 Age 29.7

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

Ivan Gakhov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Ivan Gakhov

1st Serve In %

66.5%

62.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.2%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

64.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

36.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Ivan Gakhov

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

28.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Monteiro 0 – 1 Ivan Gakhov

Clay Hagen challenger · 2026-08-02

qualification - 1. round

Thiago Monteiro #303

Ivan Gakhov #459

6-7 6-4 6-4

6 Aces 12

7 Double Faults 2

113 Service Points 95

74 First Serve In 52

52 First Serve Won 42

18 Second Serve Won 18

7 Break Points Saved 8

9 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 5.0

Clay Geneva · 2025-05-18

Q1

Ivan Gakhov #265

Thiago Monteiro #130

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3

10 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 4

96 Service Points 106

68 First Serve In 71

49 First Serve Won 50

18 Second Serve Won 21

4 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Thiago Monteiro vs Ivan Gakhov — Prediction