ATP tennis predict — Thiago Monteiro vs Elmer Moller

Challenger Clay Braga challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

49.41%

Elmer Moller

Denmark

50.59%

Average Odds

1.56 / 2.24

Market probability

58.95% / 41.05%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1760.8 Elo 1671.9

1760.9 Elo (surface) 1707.5

258 Wins (Challenger) 90

244 Wins (surface) 75

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.143 Dominance ratio 1.124

232 Rank 175

32.3 Age 23.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

Elmer Moller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Elmer Moller

1st Serve In %

66.5%

59.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

67.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.2%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

69.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

45.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

36.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

53.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Elmer Moller

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

29.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

50.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Monteiro 0 – 1 Elmer Moller

Clay Oeiras 4 CH · 2025-04-14

R32

Elmer Moller #148

Thiago Monteiro #93

6-3 6-7(2) 6-1

2 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 2

107 Service Points 83

64 First Serve In 48

41 First Serve Won 31

24 Second Serve Won 17

5 Break Points Saved 6

7 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Thiago Monteiro vs Elmer Moller — Prediction