ATP tennis predict — Thiago Monteiro vs David Jorda Sanchis

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

67.13%

David Jorda Sanchis

Spain

32.87%

Average Odds

1.47 / 2.54

Market probability

63.34% / 36.66%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Monteiro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1653 vs 1596), more wins on clay courts (233 vs 70) and a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1683 vs 1624).

Player Comparison

1653.0 Elo 1595.5

1683.3 Elo (surface) 1623.7

247 Wins (Challenger) 91

233 Wins (surface) 70

11 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.223 Dominance ratio 1.082

303 Rank 188

32.2 Age 32.1

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

David Jorda Sanchis

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro David Jorda Sanchis

1st Serve In %

66.5%

61.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

40.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.2%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

42.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

57.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

73.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

45.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro David Jorda Sanchis

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

34.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Monteiro 0 – 0 David Jorda Sanchis

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Thiago Monteiro #303

David Jorda Sanchis #188

7-5 7-5

4 Aces 9

1 Double Faults 0

68 Service Points 69

41 First Serve In 37

34 First Serve Won 27

15 Second Serve Won 17

1 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Thiago Monteiro vs David Jorda Sanchis — Prediction