ATP tennis predict — Thiago Monteiro vs Andrea Pellegrino

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

43.04%

Andrea Pellegrino

Italy

56.96%

Average Odds

2.46 / 1.51

Market probability

38.04% / 61.96%

Why This Prediction?

Andrea Pellegrino is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1709 vs 1660) and a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1735 vs 1691).

Player Comparison

1660.3 Elo 1709.0

1691.3 Elo (surface) 1734.9

248 Wins (Challenger) 212

234 Wins (surface) 192

11 Last 15 form 10

5 Head-to-head wins 1

1.219 Dominance ratio 1.038

303 Rank 137

32.2 Age 29.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

Andrea Pellegrino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Andrea Pellegrino

1st Serve In %

66.5%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

67.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.2%

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

46.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

60.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

39.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Andrea Pellegrino

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

56.4%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

36.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Monteiro 5 – 1 Andrea Pellegrino

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-30

R16

Thiago Monteiro #303

Andrea Pellegrino #137

6-3 6-2

4 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 4

61 Service Points 41

43 First Serve In 23

31 First Serve Won 11

8 Second Serve Won 7

4 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Clay Montechiarugolo CH · 2023-06-19

R32

Thiago Monteiro #95

Andrea Pellegrino #232

6-4 6-4

6 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 0

55 Service Points 62

36 First Serve In 41

28 First Serve Won 29

13 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Genoa CH · 2022-09-19

F

Thiago Monteiro #66

Andrea Pellegrino #164

6-1 7-6(2)

1 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 5

69 Service Points 58

47 First Serve In 33

35 First Serve Won 21

11 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 0

3 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Lisboa CH · 2021-09-27

R16

Andrea Pellegrino #258

Thiago Monteiro #90

6-3 7-6(8)

6 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 0

73 Service Points 74

53 First Serve In 52

40 First Serve Won 36

11 Second Serve Won 9

2 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Forli CH · 2020-09-21

SF

Thiago Monteiro #89

Andrea Pellegrino #346

6-4 4-6 6-1

3 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 5

90 Service Points 79

63 First Serve In 50

45 First Serve Won 34

13 Second Serve Won 10

7 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Genova CH · 2019-09-02

R32

Thiago Monteiro #101

Andrea Pellegrino #322

6-3 6-4

7 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 6

70 Service Points 59

37 First Serve In 27

31 First Serve Won 19

14 Second Serve Won 15

6 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Biella CH · 2018-09-17

R32

Thiago Monteiro #117

Andrea Pellegrino #357

6-7(4) 6-1 6-2

11 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 8

88 Service Points 99

47 First Serve In 60

37 First Serve Won 38

25 Second Serve Won 19

2 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Thiago Monteiro vs Andrea Pellegrino — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Thiago Monteiro — Last 10

Andrea Pellegrino — Last 10