ATP tennis predict — Thiago Monteiro vs Alberto Bronzetti

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Thiago Monteiro

Brazil

90.51%

Alberto Bronzetti

Italy

9.49%

Average Odds

1.02 / 13.30

Market probability

92.88% / 7.12%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Monteiro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1676 vs 1385), a higher Elo rating (1645 vs 1407) and more wins on clay courts (231 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1645.1 Elo 1406.5

1676.0 Elo (surface) 1385.5

245 Wins (Challenger) 1

231 Wins (surface) 0

10 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.078 Dominance ratio 0.845

298 Rank 1795

32.2 Age 28.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Monteiro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-07-11.

Alberto Bronzetti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Alberto Bronzetti

1st Serve In %

66.5%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.45

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

53.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

66.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.8%

39.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Monteiro Alberto Bronzetti

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

43.2%

Break Points Converted %

37.0%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Monteiro 0 – 0 Alberto Bronzetti

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-26

qualification - 1. round

Thiago Monteiro #178

Alberto Bronzetti #-

6-2 6-1

3 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 8

42 Service Points 59

26 First Serve In 25

20 First Serve Won 20

10 Second Serve Won 7

2 Break Points Saved 7

2 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.0 Average Odds 13.3

Thiago Monteiro vs Alberto Bronzetti — Prediction