ATP tennis predict — Thiago Cigarran vs Tomas Martinez

Challenger Clay Buenos Aires challenger · qualification - round of 16 17:00

Predicted probability

Thiago Cigarran

Argentina

63.22%

Tomas Martinez

Argentina

36.78%

Average Odds

1.51 / 2.36

Market probability

60.98% / 39.02%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Cigarran is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1457 vs 1441), better recent form (9 wins in his last 15 matches vs 7) and a better head-to-head record against Tomas Martinez (1-0).

Player Comparison

1456.8 Elo 1440.8

1463.6 Elo (surface) 1454.2

17 Wins (Challenger) 9

17 Wins (surface) 9

9 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.033 Dominance ratio 0.900

621 Rank 828

26.5 Age 23.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Cigarran

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Tomas Martinez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Cigarran Tomas Martinez

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

65.2%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.4%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.5%

43.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.1%

34.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.16

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Cigarran Tomas Martinez

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

57.5%

40.9%

Break Points Converted %

45.7%

53.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Cigarran 1 – 0 Tomas Martinez

Clay Buenos Aires challenger · 2026-09-21

qualification - round of 16

Tomas Martinez #828

Thiago Cigarran #621

6-1 4-0

0 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

6 First Serve Won 20

2 Second Serve Won 2

1 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Clay San Miguel de Tucuman CH · 2025-04-21

Q1

Thiago Cigarran #867

Tomas Martinez #1270

6-4 3-6 6-1

2 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 6

91 Service Points 86

48 First Serve In 44

37 First Serve Won 31

21 Second Serve Won 23

4 Break Points Saved 7

5 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Thiago Cigarran vs Tomas Martinez — Prediction