ATP tennis predict — Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Rafael Jodar

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Argentina

25.57%

Rafael Jodar

Spain

74.43%

Average Odds

2.97 / 1.39

Market probability

31.88% / 68.12%

Why This Prediction?

Rafael Jodar is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1979 vs 1832), a higher Elo rating (2105 vs 1943) and a stronger return game (40.4% vs 35.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1943.3 Elo 2105.3

1831.7 Elo (surface) 1978.9

68 Wins 46

31 Wins (surface) 25

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.152 Dominance ratio 1.130

54 Rank 13

25.5 Age 20.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Rafael Jodar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Agustin Tirante Rafael Jodar

1st Serve In %

54.7%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.8%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.2%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

74.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

56.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

37.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

57.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.68

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Agustin Tirante Rafael Jodar

Break Points Saved %

68.8%

58.0%

Break Points Converted %

34.9%

41.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.0%

77.5%

Break Points Converted %

41.5%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Agustin Tirante and Rafael Jodar have never played each other.

Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Rafael Jodar — Prediction