ATP tennis predict — Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

ATP Clay Bastad · R16

Predicted probability

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Argentina

61.29%

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

38.71%

Average Odds

1.39 / 2.92

Market probability

67.75% / 32.25%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Agustin Tirante is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1742 vs 1679), fewer double faults per game (0.08 vs 0.30) and a stronger serve (65.1% vs 60.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1713.1 Elo 1677.0

1741.7 Elo (surface) 1678.6

59 Wins 246

33 Wins (surface) 74

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.927 Dominance ratio 1.108

61 Rank 135

25.3 Age 34.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-06.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Agustin Tirante Nikoloz Basilashvili

1st Serve In %

55.2%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.9%

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.3%

46.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

25.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

51.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

27.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.68

0.74

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.53

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Agustin Tirante Nikoloz Basilashvili

Break Points Saved %

69.4%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

40.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.0%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.5%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Agustin Tirante 0 – 0 Nikoloz Basilashvili

Clay Bastad · 2026-07-16

R16

Thiago Agustin Tirante #61

Nikoloz Basilashvili #135

7-5 3-6 6-4

11 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 7

114 Service Points 110

65 First Serve In 60

43 First Serve Won 34

19 Second Serve Won 25

4 Break Points Saved 10

10 Break Points Faced 15

39 Winners 17

78 Unforced Errors 37

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Nikoloz Basilashvili — Prediction