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Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jan Choinski — Prediction

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Argentina

54.45%

Jan Choinski

Great Britain

45.55%

Average Odds

1.46  /  2.70

Market probability

64.90%  /  35.10%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1742.5 Elo 1833.0
1660.5 Elo (surface) 1547.2
63 Wins 28
26 Wins (surface) 9
9 Last 15 form 7
1 Head-to-head wins 2
0.979 Dominance ratio 0.969
65 Rank 77
25.3 Age 30.2
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Jan Choinski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Agustin Tirante Jan Choinski

1st Serve In %

55.2%
60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.9%
75.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.3%
49.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%
26.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%
47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.55
0.77

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20
0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%
59.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%
77.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%
58.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%
35.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%
54.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.68
0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15
0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Agustin Tirante Jan Choinski

Break Points Saved %

69.4%
64.3%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%
33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.0%
65.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.5%
37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Agustin Tirante 1 – 2 Jan Choinski

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-13

1. round

Thiago Agustin Tirante #65

Jan Choinski #77

7-6 6-7 7-6
20 Aces 14
4 Double Faults 3
118 Service Points 124
59 First Serve In 81
46 First Serve Won 58
39 Second Serve Won 27
3 Break Points Saved 5
5 Break Points Faced 7
38 Winners 29
49 Unforced Errors 51
1.5 Average Odds 2.7
Clay San Luis Potosi CH · 2023-04-03

QF

Jan Choinski #194

Thiago Agustin Tirante #199

6-4 6-4
5 Aces 9
2 Double Faults 5
51 Service Points 52
28 First Serve In 31
24 First Serve Won 23
17 Second Serve Won 10
1 Break Points Saved 0
1 Break Points Faced 2
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Mexico City CH · 2023-03-27

SF

Thiago Agustin Tirante #234

Jan Choinski #220

7-6(5) 4-6 6-4
13 Aces 8
4 Double Faults 5
148 Service Points 111
90 First Serve In 63
64 First Serve Won 50
27 Second Serve Won 21
12 Break Points Saved 9
15 Break Points Faced 12
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Guayaquil CH · 2022-10-31

R32

Jan Choinski #284

Thiago Agustin Tirante #228

6-3 7-6(5)
4 Aces 4
1 Double Faults 0
76 Service Points 63
57 First Serve In 40
42 First Serve Won 29
9 Second Serve Won 14
3 Break Points Saved 0
4 Break Points Faced 2
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Thiago Agustin Tirante — Last 10

L L W W W W L W W W

Jan Choinski — Last 10

L L L L W W W W W L