ATP tennis predict — Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Alexei Popyrin

ATP Hard Montreal · 3. round 02:40

Predicted probability

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Argentina

45.75%

Alexei Popyrin

Australia

54.25%

Average Odds

2.12 / 1.73

Market probability

44.94% / 55.06%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1740.3 Elo 1698.0

1661.4 Elo (surface) 1580.4

62 Wins 182

25 Wins (surface) 119

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.976 Dominance ratio 0.966

65 Rank 139

25.3 Age 27.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Alexei Popyrin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Agustin Tirante Alexei Popyrin

1st Serve In %

55.2%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.9%

77.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.3%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.77

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

77.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

55.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.68

0.72

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Agustin Tirante Alexei Popyrin

Break Points Saved %

69.4%

56.0%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.0%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.5%

30.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Agustin Tirante 0 – 0 Alexei Popyrin

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-08

3. round

Thiago Agustin Tirante #65

Alexei Popyrin #139

6-3 6-4

3 Aces 9

2 Double Faults 2

56 Service Points 51

32 First Serve In 27

21 First Serve Won 22

15 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 0

3 Break Points Faced 0

15 Winners 21

27 Unforced Errors 11

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Alexei Popyrin — Prediction