ATP tennis predict — Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian Mannarino

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Argentina

74.06%

Adrian Mannarino

France

25.94%

Average Odds

1.36 / 3.18

Market probability

70.04% / 29.96%

Why This Prediction?

Thiago Agustin Tirante is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1791 vs 1675), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1735 vs 1707) and a stronger serve (68.1% vs 64.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1791.2 Elo 1674.7

1734.9 Elo (surface) 1706.7

67 Wins 412

30 Wins (surface) 280

10 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.136 Dominance ratio 1.005

42 Rank 67

25.4 Age 38.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Adrian Mannarino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Agustin Tirante Adrian Mannarino

1st Serve In %

55.2%

54.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.9%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.3%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.3%

25.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.8%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.6%

72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

49.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.68

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Thiago Agustin Tirante Adrian Mannarino

Break Points Saved %

69.4%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

35.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.0%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.5%

47.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Thiago Agustin Tirante 0 – 0 Adrian Mannarino

Hard US Open · 2026-08-31

1. round

Adrian Mannarino #67

Thiago Agustin Tirante #42

4-6 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-3

19 Aces 4

16 Double Faults 1

151 Service Points 136

76 First Serve In 80

62 First Serve Won 61

28 Second Serve Won 26

6 Break Points Saved 6

12 Break Points Faced 10

45 Winners 23

71 Unforced Errors 53

3.2 Average Odds 1.4

Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian Mannarino — Prediction