ATP tennis predict — Taylor Fritz vs Rafael Jodar

ATP Hard Washington · F

Predicted probability

Taylor Fritz

USA

56.82%

Rafael Jodar

Spain

43.18%

Average Odds

1.69 / 2.16

Market probability

56.10% / 43.90%

Why This Prediction?

Taylor Fritz is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (76.4% vs 64.6% of service points won), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1868 vs 1730) and a higher Elo rating (1929 vs 1889).

Player Comparison

1928.9 Elo 1889.3

1868.2 Elo (surface) 1730.4

390 Wins 38

269 Wins (surface) 17

12 Last 15 form 12

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.529 Dominance ratio 1.133

10 Rank 24

28.8 Age 19.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Taylor Fritz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Rafael Jodar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taylor Fritz Rafael Jodar

1st Serve In %

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.6%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.8%

74.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.6%

56.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

37.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

57.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.88

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taylor Fritz Rafael Jodar

Break Points Saved %

65.0%

58.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

41.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.4%

77.5%

Break Points Converted %

42.4%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Taylor Fritz 1 – 0 Rafael Jodar

Hard Washington · 2026-08-03

F

Taylor Fritz #8

Rafael Jodar #15

7-6 6-4

6 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 3

78 Service Points 73

48 First Serve In 49

39 First Serve Won 33

16 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 1

3 Break Points Faced 3

18 Winners 12

35 Unforced Errors 35

1.7 Average Odds 2.2

Hard Delray Beach · 2026-02-16

R16

Taylor Fritz #8

Rafael Jodar #118

7-6(4) 6-4

15 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 0

68 Service Points 94

49 First Serve In 67

41 First Serve Won 41

8 Second Serve Won 15

2 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Taylor Fritz vs Rafael Jodar — Prediction