ATP tennis predict — Taylor Fritz vs Mattia Bellucci

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 19:00

Predicted probability

Taylor Fritz

USA

79.81%

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

20.19%

Average Odds

1.10 / 7.15

Market probability

86.67% / 13.33%

Why This Prediction?

Taylor Fritz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1938 vs 1697), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1874 vs 1664) and a stronger serve (70.6% vs 66.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1937.6 Elo 1697.3

1874.4 Elo (surface) 1663.9

396 Wins 66

275 Wins (surface) 42

12 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.203 Dominance ratio 1.058

10 Rank 95

28.8 Age 25.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Taylor Fritz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Mattia Bellucci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taylor Fritz Mattia Bellucci

1st Serve In %

61.5%

59.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

42.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.6%

60.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.8%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.6%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

35.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.88

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taylor Fritz Mattia Bellucci

Break Points Saved %

65.0%

62.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.4%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

42.4%

43.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Taylor Fritz 1 – 0 Mattia Bellucci

Hard US Open · 2026-09-03

2. round

Taylor Fritz #10

Mattia Bellucci #95

6-0 6-1 6-1

11 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 4

56 Service Points 79

35 First Serve In 43

30 First Serve Won 22

13 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 7

3 Break Points Faced 15

28 Winners 9

22 Unforced Errors 21

1.1 Average Odds 7.2

Grass Stuttgart · 2026-06-12

QF

Taylor Fritz #9

Mattia Bellucci #78

5-7 7-5 7-5

9 Aces 11

5 Double Faults 1

115 Service Points 101

73 First Serve In 72

54 First Serve Won 60

22 Second Serve Won 15

7 Break Points Saved 2

9 Break Points Faced 3

39 Winners 29

41 Unforced Errors 24

- Average Odds -

Taylor Fritz vs Mattia Bellucci — Prediction