ATP tennis predict — Taylor Fritz vs Francisco Cerundolo

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 3. round 17:30

Predicted probability

Taylor Fritz

USA

71.99%

Francisco Cerundolo

Argentina

28.01%

Average Odds

1.14 / 5.65

Market probability

83.21% / 16.79%

Why This Prediction?

Taylor Fritz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1880 vs 1750), a higher Elo rating (1942 vs 1880) and a stronger serve (69.7% vs 58.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1941.5 Elo 1879.7

1879.5 Elo (surface) 1749.5

397 Wins 189

276 Wins (surface) 67

12 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.228 Dominance ratio 0.871

10 Rank 25

28.8 Age 28.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Taylor Fritz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Francisco Cerundolo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taylor Fritz Francisco Cerundolo

1st Serve In %

61.5%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%

70.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

51.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.6%

69.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.8%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.6%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.88

0.15

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taylor Fritz Francisco Cerundolo

Break Points Saved %

65.0%

65.2%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.4%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

42.4%

47.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Taylor Fritz 1 – 1 Francisco Cerundolo

Hard US Open · 2026-09-05

3. round

Francisco Cerundolo #25

Taylor Fritz #10

3-6 4-6 6-3 6-4 6-4

12 Aces 10

5 Double Faults 9

158 Service Points 140

83 First Serve In 85

56 First Serve Won 69

41 Second Serve Won 18

13 Break Points Saved 7

19 Break Points Faced 12

37 Winners 41

54 Unforced Errors 54

5.7 Average Odds 1.1

Clay Madrid Masters · 2024-04-22

QF

Taylor Fritz #13

Francisco Cerundolo #22

6-1 3-6 6-3

5 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 4

75 Service Points 75

46 First Serve In 53

38 First Serve Won 36

14 Second Serve Won 10

1 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Roland Garros · 2023-05-29

R32

Francisco Cerundolo #23

Taylor Fritz #8

3-6 6-3 6-4 7-5

1 Aces 9

4 Double Faults 4

134 Service Points 119

110 First Serve In 94

71 First Serve Won 64

12 Second Serve Won 10

11 Break Points Saved 15

15 Break Points Faced 21