ATP tennis predict — Taylor Fritz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 3. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Taylor Fritz

USA

75.52%

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

24.48%

Average Odds

1.23 / 4.16

Market probability

77.18% / 22.82%

Why This Prediction?

Taylor Fritz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1876 vs 1615), a higher Elo rating (1936 vs 1824) and a stronger serve (71.6% vs 59.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1936.0 Elo 1824.0

1875.6 Elo (surface) 1614.6

393 Wins 31

272 Wins (surface) 12

12 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.235 Dominance ratio 0.964

9 Rank 40

28.8 Age 21.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Taylor Fritz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taylor Fritz Daniel Merida Aguilar

1st Serve In %

61.5%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

54.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.6%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.8%

62.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.6%

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

31.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.88

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taylor Fritz Daniel Merida Aguilar

Break Points Saved %

65.0%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.4%

49.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.4%

29.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Taylor Fritz 0 – 0 Daniel Merida Aguilar

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-18

3. round

Taylor Fritz #9

Daniel Merida Aguilar #40

6-3 6-4

8 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 0

64 Service Points 53

43 First Serve In 36

33 First Serve Won 27

13 Second Serve Won 6

2 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 7

17 Winners 17

13 Unforced Errors 25

1.2 Average Odds 4.2

Taylor Fritz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Prediction