ATP tennis predict
← Back to Predictions

Taylor Fritz vs Christopher Oconnell — Prediction

ATP Hard Cincinnati · R16 02:35

Predicted probability

Taylor Fritz

USA

80.74%

Christopher Oconnell

Australia

19.26%

Average Odds

1.09  /  7.40

Market probability

87.16%  /  12.84%

Why This Prediction?

Taylor Fritz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1942 vs 1747), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1879 vs 1679) and a stronger serve (71.3% vs 62.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1942.2 Elo 1746.8
1879.3 Elo (surface) 1679.3
394 Wins 127
273 Wins (surface) 94
12 Last 15 form 9
3 Head-to-head wins 0
1.247 Dominance ratio 0.746
9 Rank 129
28.8 Age 32.2
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Taylor Fritz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Christopher Oconnell

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–0L · 100.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taylor Fritz Christopher Oconnell

1st Serve In %

61.5%
55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%
72.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%
46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%
26.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%
44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.75
0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23
0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.6%
60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.8%
71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.6%
49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%
22.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%
41.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.88
0.78

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17
0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taylor Fritz Christopher Oconnell

Break Points Saved %

65.0%
56.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%
32.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.4%
52.8%

Break Points Converted %

42.4%
23.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Taylor Fritz 3 – 0 Christopher Oconnell

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-20

R16

Taylor Fritz #9

Christopher Oconnell #129

6-4 6-3
10 Aces 3
3 Double Faults 1
58 Service Points 52
38 First Serve In 26
29 First Serve Won 23
13 Second Serve Won 10
1 Break Points Saved 5
1 Break Points Faced 7
23 Winners 10
23 Unforced Errors 18
1.1 Average Odds 7.4
Clay Madrid Masters · 2025-04-23

R64

Taylor Fritz #4

Christopher Oconnell #87

6-1 6-4
5 Aces 2
0 Double Faults 2
54 Service Points 50
31 First Serve In 23
27 First Serve Won 16
9 Second Serve Won 10
3 Break Points Saved 4
4 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Grass Wimbledon · 2024-07-01

R128

Taylor Fritz #12

Christopher Oconnell #79

6-1 6-2 6-4
18 Aces 3
2 Double Faults 2
63 Service Points 88
38 First Serve In 56
36 First Serve Won 33
17 Second Serve Won 12
2 Break Points Saved 3
2 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Madrid Masters · 2023-04-24

R64

Taylor Fritz #10

Christopher Oconnell #81

7-6(11) 6-4
8 Aces 11
1 Double Faults 1
73 Service Points 84
41 First Serve In 54
34 First Serve Won 44
23 Second Serve Won 14
2 Break Points Saved 2
2 Break Points Faced 3
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Taylor Fritz — Last 10

L W W L W W W L W W

Christopher Oconnell — Last 10

L W W L W W W W W L