ATP tennis predict — Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima

ATP Hard Washington · SF

Predicted probability

Taylor Fritz

USA

64.45%

Brandon Nakashima

USA

35.55%

Average Odds

1.53 / 2.48

Market probability

61.85% / 38.15%

Why This Prediction?

Taylor Fritz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1929 vs 1812), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1868 vs 1801) and a stronger serve (76.4% vs 67.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1928.9 Elo 1812.0

1868.2 Elo (surface) 1801.0

390 Wins 173

269 Wins (surface) 116

12 Last 15 form 10

3 Head-to-head wins 1

1.529 Dominance ratio 1.148

10 Rank 33

28.8 Age 25.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Taylor Fritz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Brandon Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taylor Fritz Brandon Nakashima

1st Serve In %

61.5%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%

77.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%

24.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.6%

66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.8%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.6%

54.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.88

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taylor Fritz Brandon Nakashima

Break Points Saved %

65.0%

73.2%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.4%

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

42.4%

46.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Taylor Fritz 3 – 1 Brandon Nakashima

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-21

QF

Brandon Nakashima #22

Taylor Fritz #9

7-6 4-6 6-3

22 Aces 13

3 Double Faults 4

90 Service Points 104

52 First Serve In 60

43 First Serve Won 51

20 Second Serve Won 19

1 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 6

41 Winners 25

34 Unforced Errors 25

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Washington · 2026-08-02

SF

Taylor Fritz #10

Brandon Nakashima #33

6-3 3-6 6-3

14 Aces 13

2 Double Faults 2

77 Service Points 76

47 First Serve In 45

37 First Serve Won 36

15 Second Serve Won 20

1 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 4

29 Winners 32

30 Unforced Errors 27

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Hard Dallas · 2026-02-09

R16

Taylor Fritz #7

Brandon Nakashima #29

6-3 6-4

15 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 0

54 Service Points 50

41 First Serve In 34

34 First Serve Won 22

8 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 0

3 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2024-08-12

R64

Brandon Nakashima #49

Taylor Fritz #12

6-4 4-6 7-6(4)

15 Aces 13

1 Double Faults 6

101 Service Points 92

67 First Serve In 59

52 First Serve Won 49

21 Second Serve Won 20

4 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2021-10-04

R64

Taylor Fritz #39

Brandon Nakashima #79

6-3 6-4

5 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 0

58 Service Points 60

31 First Serve In 33

23 First Serve Won 23

16 Second Serve Won 12

0 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Wimbledon · 2021-06-28

R128

Taylor Fritz #40

Brandon Nakashima #138

7-5 3-6 6-4 7-5

16 Aces 7

6 Double Faults 3

116 Service Points 125

66 First Serve In 81

54 First Serve Won 59

26 Second Serve Won 22

4 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Taylor Fritz — Last 10

Brandon Nakashima — Last 10