ATP tennis predict — Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen

ATP Hard Washington · QF

Predicted probability

Taylor Fritz

USA

60.98%

Alex Michelsen

USA

39.02%

Average Odds

1.42 / 2.82

Market probability

66.51% / 33.49%

Why This Prediction?

Taylor Fritz is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (76.5% vs 61.3% of service points won), a higher Elo rating (1922 vs 1844) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1859 vs 1839).

Player Comparison

1921.9 Elo 1843.7

1858.5 Elo (surface) 1838.7

389 Wins 97

268 Wins (surface) 69

12 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 2

1.475 Dominance ratio 0.975

10 Rank 40

28.8 Age 21.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Taylor Fritz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Alex Michelsen

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taylor Fritz Alex Michelsen

1st Serve In %

61.5%

58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.5%

75.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.0%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%

27.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.75

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.6%

58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.8%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.6%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.88

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taylor Fritz Alex Michelsen

Break Points Saved %

65.0%

67.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

43.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.4%

55.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.4%

56.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Taylor Fritz 0 – 2 Alex Michelsen

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-16

2. round

Taylor Fritz #9

Alex Michelsen #41

6-3 6-4

7 Aces 4

6 Double Faults 8

71 Service Points 60

38 First Serve In 37

31 First Serve Won 25

14 Second Serve Won 8

1 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 6

25 Winners 13

30 Unforced Errors 31

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Hard Washington · 2026-07-31

QF

Taylor Fritz #10

Alex Michelsen #40

6-1 3-6 7-6

15 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 7

85 Service Points 91

51 First Serve In 56

43 First Serve Won 41

17 Second Serve Won 15

8 Break Points Saved 3

10 Break Points Faced 6

30 Winners 22

35 Unforced Errors 33

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2026-03-04

R32

Alex Michelsen #44

Taylor Fritz #7

6-4 7-6(6)

9 Aces 12

1 Double Faults 0

78 Service Points 77

55 First Serve In 54

40 First Serve Won 39

13 Second Serve Won 9

7 Break Points Saved 7

8 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Geneva · 2024-05-20

R16

Alex Michelsen #65

Taylor Fritz #12

6-4 4-6 7-5

2 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 3

95 Service Points 118

70 First Serve In 67

44 First Serve Won 42

15 Second Serve Won 22

4 Break Points Saved 8

8 Break Points Faced 13