ATP tennis predict — Taro Daniel vs Shintaro Mochizuki

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 1. round 06:10

Predicted probability

Taro Daniel

Japan

42.67%

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

57.33%

Average Odds

1.63 / 2.19

Market probability

57.33% / 42.67%

Why This Prediction?

Shintaro Mochizuki is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (44.7% vs 36.1% of return points won) and a stronger serve (59.6% vs 57.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1791.2 Elo 1746.5

1671.1 Elo (surface) 1641.0

222 Wins 57

132 Wins (surface) 39

8 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.827 Dominance ratio 1.022

172 Rank 120

33.7 Age 23.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Taro Daniel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

33 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taro Daniel Shintaro Mochizuki

1st Serve In %

61.8%

49.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

46.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.2%

57.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.1%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.0%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

60.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taro Daniel Shintaro Mochizuki

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%

51.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

54.8%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Taro Daniel 1 – 0 Shintaro Mochizuki

Hard Sydney CH · 2023-10-30

QF

Taro Daniel #97

Shintaro Mochizuki #133

3-1 RET

0 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 0

10 Service Points 12

6 First Serve In 10

4 First Serve Won 3

1 Second Serve Won 0

0 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Taro Daniel vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Prediction