ATP tennis predict — Taro Daniel vs Jacob Fearnley

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · QF 01:25

Predicted probability

Taro Daniel

Japan

34.36%

Jacob Fearnley

Great Britain

65.64%

Average Odds

2.56 / 1.47

Market probability

36.48% / 63.52%

Why This Prediction?

Jacob Fearnley is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1843 vs 1785), a stronger return game (42.8% vs 33.8% of return points won) and a stronger serve (64.2% vs 59.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1785.3 Elo 1843.4

1706.8 Elo (surface) 1690.3

244 Wins (Challenger) 57

120 Wins (surface) 40

13 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.806 Dominance ratio 1.139

186 Rank 107

33.6 Age 25.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Taro Daniel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Jacob Fearnley

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taro Daniel Jacob Fearnley

1st Serve In %

64.3%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.3%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.4%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

55.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.1%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.0%

73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taro Daniel Jacob Fearnley

Break Points Saved %

51.6%

62.4%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

42.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

47.5%

Break Points Converted %

54.8%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Taro Daniel 0 – 0 Jacob Fearnley

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-22

QF

Taro Daniel #186

Jacob Fearnley #107

6-4 6-1

2 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 2

59 Service Points 60

30 First Serve In 30

19 First Serve Won 16

17 Second Serve Won 13

9 Break Points Saved 5

10 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.6 Average Odds 1.5

Taro Daniel vs Jacob Fearnley — Prediction