ATP tennis predict — Taro Daniel vs Hayato Matsuoka

ATP Hard Hangzhou · qualification - quarterfinal 06:10

Predicted probability

Taro Daniel

Japan

55.85%

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

44.15%

Average Odds

1.53 / 2.41

Market probability

61.17% / 38.83%

Why This Prediction?

Taro Daniel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1793 vs 1657), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1671 vs 1650) and more wins on hard courts (130 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1792.7 Elo 1657.1

1671.4 Elo (surface) 1649.7

220 Wins 1

130 Wins (surface) 1

9 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.827 Dominance ratio 0.827

193 Rank 249

33.6 Age 21.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Taro Daniel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taro Daniel Hayato Matsuoka

1st Serve In %

64.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

62.3%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.1%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.0%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.8%

23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taro Daniel Hayato Matsuoka

Break Points Saved %

51.6%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

54.8%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Taro Daniel 0 – 0 Hayato Matsuoka

Hard Hangzhou · 2026-09-23

qualification - quarterfinal

Taro Daniel #193

Hayato Matsuoka #249

6-4 7-6

4 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

32 First Serve Won 29

18 Second Serve Won 20

0 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Taro Daniel vs Hayato Matsuoka — Prediction