ATP tennis predict — Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi

ATP Hard Montreal · 3. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Tallon Griekspoor

Netherlands

59.29%

Matteo Arnaldi

Italy

40.71%

Average Odds

1.61 / 2.30

Market probability

58.82% / 41.18%

Why This Prediction?

Tallon Griekspoor is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1793 vs 1628), a higher Elo rating (1818 vs 1762) and a stronger serve (67.1% vs 62.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1817.5 Elo 1761.8

1793.4 Elo (surface) 1627.9

161 Wins 101

99 Wins (surface) 57

5 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.081 Dominance ratio 1.158

69 Rank 35

30.1 Age 25.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tallon Griekspoor

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Matteo Arnaldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tallon Griekspoor Matteo Arnaldi

1st Serve In %

62.0%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

75.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

57.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.2%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

37.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tallon Griekspoor Matteo Arnaldi

Break Points Saved %

61.4%

62.2%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

41.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

40.5%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tallon Griekspoor 0 – 1 Matteo Arnaldi

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-07

3. round

Tallon Griekspoor #69

Matteo Arnaldi #35

3-6 6-4 6-3

4 Aces 10

5 Double Faults 4

77 Service Points 76

43 First Serve In 40

32 First Serve Won 31

17 Second Serve Won 15

1 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 9

19 Winners 26

32 Unforced Errors 31

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Clay French Open · 2026-05-26

1. round

Matteo Arnaldi #104

Tallon Griekspoor #33

6-7 6-3 7-6 6-3

9 Aces 7

9 Double Faults 2

166 Service Points 133

88 First Serve In 85

57 First Serve Won 66

46 Second Serve Won 31

8 Break Points Saved 5

12 Break Points Faced 5

62 Winners 61

59 Unforced Errors 34

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi — Prediction