ATP tennis predict — Tallon Griekspoor vs Denis Shapovalov

ATP Hard Chengdu · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Tallon Griekspoor

Netherlands

44.68%

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

55.32%

Average Odds

2.19 / 1.66

Market probability

43.12% / 56.88%

Why This Prediction?

Denis Shapovalov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1948 vs 1911), more wins on hard courts (198 vs 100) and a stronger return game (39.0% vs 34.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1910.9 Elo 1923.7

1910.6 Elo (surface) 1948.0

162 Wins 262

100 Wins (surface) 198

5 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.101 Dominance ratio 1.034

55 Rank 50

30.2 Age 27.4

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tallon Griekspoor

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Denis Shapovalov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tallon Griekspoor Denis Shapovalov

1st Serve In %

62.0%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.45

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.2%

58.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tallon Griekspoor Denis Shapovalov

Break Points Saved %

61.4%

59.8%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

40.5%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tallon Griekspoor 1 – 1 Denis Shapovalov

Clay Munich · 2026-04-13

R32

Denis Shapovalov #39

Tallon Griekspoor #32

6-4 3-6 6-2

3 Aces 4

6 Double Faults 4

82 Service Points 85

48 First Serve In 56

31 First Serve Won 36

21 Second Serve Won 13

3 Break Points Saved 8

6 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Geneva · 2024-05-20

R16

Tallon Griekspoor #27

Denis Shapovalov #123

6-7(7) 7-6(4) 6-3

5 Aces 10

6 Double Faults 4

104 Service Points 97

59 First Serve In 62

50 First Serve Won 51

28 Second Serve Won 20

0 Break Points Saved 0

1 Break Points Faced 2