ATP tennis predict — Tallon Griekspoor vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

ATP Hard Montreal · R16 18:30

Predicted probability

Tallon Griekspoor

Netherlands

69.90%

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Spain

30.10%

Average Odds

1.79 / 2.01

Market probability

52.89% / 47.11%

Why This Prediction?

Tallon Griekspoor is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1801 vs 1522), a higher Elo rating (1826 vs 1790) and a stronger serve (67.1% vs 55.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1826.3 Elo 1789.7

1801.1 Elo (surface) 1522.2

162 Wins 28

100 Wins (surface) 9

5 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.051 Dominance ratio 0.936

69 Rank 63

30.1 Age 21.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Tallon Griekspoor

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tallon Griekspoor Daniel Merida Aguilar

1st Serve In %

62.0%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.7%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

54.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

66.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

62.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.2%

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

31.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.1%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Tallon Griekspoor Daniel Merida Aguilar

Break Points Saved %

61.4%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

43.8%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%

49.3%

Break Points Converted %

40.5%

29.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Tallon Griekspoor 0 – 0 Daniel Merida Aguilar

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-09

R16

Daniel Merida Aguilar #63

Tallon Griekspoor #69

6-3 6-1

3 Aces 3

6 Double Faults 1

53 Service Points 45

30 First Serve In 30

17 First Serve Won 25

10 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 2

8 Break Points Faced 2

13 Winners 18

29 Unforced Errors 9

2.0 Average Odds 1.8

Tallon Griekspoor vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Prediction